A look at the four major sports (NFL, NBA, MLB and NHL) with relevant tidbits from other sports when I feel like it. Game breakdowns, predictions, opinions and other musings. Hope you enjoy it.

Monday, July 25, 2011

Anatomy of an Ace

Superstars are a rare breed, that upper two percent of athletic prowess who provide once-in-a-lifetime moments on a routine basis. Superstars catch your attention and turn a passing interest into a life long obsession for their sports.

As one of those obsessed sports fans, I have always been intrigued at the way superstars are perceived in the sport lexicon. I am intrigued because it is not a uniform perception. For example, mention Tom Brady and Peyton Manning in a sentence and it turns into a holy war of debating credentials, one that I have participated in on more than a few occasions.

The Detroit Tigers possess one such superstar in 28-year old starting pitcher Justin Verlander. He takes the mound tonight looking to get the Tigers back on track against their AL Central rivals, the Chicago White Sox, in a crucial late season series. Verlander's 2011 narrative to date is as follows: an immensely talented young pitcher who has for years tantalized the fan base with potential and has figured out how to become an ace. It's that narrative that fascinates me to no end.

At first glance, the easy explanation is correct. Through 22 starts, Verlander is 13-5 with a 2.24 ERA (3rd best in the AL) with an AL leading 162 strikeouts in 165 innings. His ERA is nearly a run and a half better than his career mark of 3.59 and his strikeout to walk ratio (4.91) is two strikeouts better than his career average (2.92). This special season has him on the short list and maybe even the favorite to win the AL Cy Young award. So he has finally "figured it out" and become an ace this season? I don't think it's that simple.

Verlander's perception among the Tigers' faithful has always amazed me. He burst onto the scene of the surprising 2006 squad, going 17-9 with a 3.63 ERA en route to winning the AL Rookie of the Year award and helping Detroit make its first World Series appearance since 1984.

Since then, the perception I gather is of a guy who has (until now) not progressed and not been the ace the Tigers' rotation needs. It's that perception that makes me think that the fans by and large do not appreciate just how great a pitcher Verlander has been over the last few years.

Verlander followed up his smashing debut with a 2007 season that saw him surpass 200 innings pitched and add 59 strikeouts (183) to his rookie total of 124. He went 18-6 with a 3.66 ERA, lowered his WHIP from 1.33 to 1.23, struck out 12 Milwaukee Brewers en route to throwing a no-hitter on June 12, made his first All-Star team and finished fifth in the AL Cy Young voting as a 24-year old.

If I had to pinpoint the frustration with Verlander, it would have to be the 2008 season. After missing the playoffs despite having the best record in baseball at the All-Star break in 2007, Detroit acquired slugger Miguel Cabrera, shortstop Edgar Renteria and lefty starter Dontrelle Willis, creating the most hyped Tigers' season in my lifetime. Instead, the epic lineup that was supposed to score 1,000 runs finished fourth in the AL with 821 and the team went 74-88, good for last place in the AL Central. Verlander did not help matters, going 11-17 with a 4.84 ERA, walking a career-worst 3.9 batters per nine innings and losing nearly a full strikeout per nine innings (7.3) from his 2007 total (8.2).

However, something happened to Verlander after that 2008 disappointment. The narrative is that Verlander has finally become an ace this season, and I say it happened two years prior.

A quick look at JV's last three seasons:

  • 2009 - The unquestioned leader of the Tigers' staff. Shaved nearly a run and a half off his 2008 ERA, finishing with a career-best 3.45 mark. Led the AL with career-highs in wins (19), innings pitched (240) and strikeouts (269). Made his second All-Star team, won his last three starts (including 7 and 2/3 strong innings against the White Sox to force game 163 against the Twins) and finished 3rd in the AL Cy Young race at age 26.
  • 2010 - Went 18-9 and posted a career-best 3.37 ERA. Lowered WHIP to a career-best 1.16. Made his third All-Star team in the last four seasons. Eclipsed 200 strikeouts (219 total) for the second-straight season. Fanned seven or more batters in seven of his last eight starts. Posted a 2.89 ERA after the All-Star break despite injuries coining the term "Miggy and the Mudhens" for his teammates.
  • 2011 - Narrative is unfinished, but 22 starts in he leads the league in innings (165) and strikeouts (162) while ranking third in ERA (2.24). Pitched into the 8th inning in 13 of his last 15 starts. Tossed his second career no-hitter at Toronto on May 7. Recorded nine-straight quality starts from May 29 to the All-Star break, a span where he allowed only seven runs (six earned) in 71 innings (0.76 ERA). Earned fourth All-Star appearance in five seasons (third straight).
Here are common complaints on Verlander:

  • He doesn't pitch deep enough into games. - Except he's averaged nearly seven innings per start the last three seasons, led the AL in innings pitched in 2009, finished third in 2010 and currently leads the AL in 2011.
  • He doesn't make the Tigers better. - Since 2009, the Tigers are 221-206 (.518 win pct.). In that span, the Tigers are 58-32 (.644) when Verlander starts.
  • He doesn't get it done down the stretch. - JV's ERA after the All-Star break in 2009 and 2010: 3.52, 2.89. Came through with big start in 2009 regular season finale, pitching the Tigers to game 163 against the Twins, where he sat in the dugout and watched the Twins steal away a playoff spot.
At only 28 years old, Verlander has an impressive array of credentials. He won a Rookie of the Year award, is a four-time All-Star, has pitched in a World Series and finished in the top five in AL Cy Young voting twice (likely three times after this year). Since the start of the 2009 season, Verlander is 50-23 with a 3.10 ERA and 650 strikeouts in 629.3 innings. He also has a 1.10 WHIP and a strikeout to walk ratio (3.89) of nearly four to one. If that's not an ace, then I guess there's just no pleasing anybody.

The common narrative for JV this season is that of a good pitcher becoming an ace. The true story is he is an ace having a career season. Verlander didn't become a superstar in 2011, he has been one for years now. It's time for everyone to just sit back and enjoy it. Starting with tonight in Chicago.