Alive and...Well?

This is the trying time of year for baseball fans commonly referred to as the "dog days of Summer". The season is well past the halfway point and the standings are beginning to have added meaning. As I write this, the Detroit Tigers clinched their first series win over the lowly Kansas City Royals and go for a sweep this afternoon. They sit at 51-49, 5.5 games behind the first place Chicago White Sox and 4 behind the surprising Minnesota Twins (the best bad baseball team I have ever seen).

Months before the season, I wrote a glowing review about the Tigers blockbuster trade for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis. I noted a concern about Willis' spontaneously poor command the past two seasons, but also figured that he could at least be about league average and that would be enough with the lineup the Tigers boasted. Instead, he has been an absolute disaster (0-1, 10.32 ERA, 21 walks in 11 1/3 innings). Cabrera got off to a slow start, then got hurt, and his defense was so bad he got switched to first base. To be fair, Cabrera is starting to hit like the Tigers expected him to now that he's gotten used to the American League (.324 average, 6 homeruns, 20 RBI, 1.002 OPS in July).

To quote and make fun of myself at the conclusion of the December blog entry, "worst case scenario is the Tigers win 95 games and return to the playoffs. Even in a tough American League, I would put money on the Tigers winning 100 games and the World Series in 2008". Samsonite, I was way off. Worst case scenario from back then is looking like best case scenario right now. To win 95 games, the Tigers would have to go 44-18 the rest of the way. That's a tall order, especially considering how hot they had to get just to get over .500 (25-12 since a 26-37 start). Can they do it? Sure, nothing is impossible until it is. Will they? I don't know, but let's take a look at how the Tigers have done the last three seasons up to the 100 game mark and then afterwards.

2005-First 100: 50-50 (.500). Last 62: 21-41 (.339).
2006-First 100: 67-33 (.670). Last 62: 28-34 (.452).
2007-First 100: 60-40 (.600). Last 62: 28-34 (.452).
Total-First 100: 177-123 (.590). Last 62: 77-109 (.414).

As you can see, the Tigers need to reverse a troubling trend. In 2005, the Tigers really weren't a contender and struggled to get to .500 most of the season before injuries caught up to them. The last two seasons, however, the Tigers were all alone atop of the American League Central division at the 100 game mark. The last two seasons, the Tigers fizzled down the stretch and gave away the division lead. They settled for the Wild Card in 2006 after being in front by 10 games in early August and missed the postseason altogether a year ago (finishing a whopping 8 games behind Cleveland). There's no lead to protect this time around, the Tigers are in the position of chasing two teams in their division. There's still some time left to do it, but this team can ill afford to rest on their laurels like the last two years.

Fortunately for the Tigers, they have some positives to build on. They've got the best record in baseball since they fell to 26-37, Justin Verlander is pitching like the ace the team envisioned, the bullpen is getting healthy at the back end with the returns of Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya, and the offense is producing at the level everyone thought they would at the beginning of the season. If all those trends continue, you have to like their chances to be relevant down the stretch. That is really all you can ask for given how poorly they started. I'm not sure if the Tigers have enough assets to trade for some help at the deadline and I don't know if they should trade them if they did, but this team has a steep climb ahead regardless of how the roster looks after July 31st.

As I previously stated, we're in the dog days of Summer. If the dogs in Detroit still want to have their day, they'll have to show up for the second half. Their margin for error is gone, they need to finish up the Royals today and steamroll ahead in the division. The games they blew early don't matter now. To make the playoffs, it has to be full speed ahead from here.