Panic Runs Amok in the West

Been a few weeks since my last update, my work schedule has been hectic and after waking up at 4 AM every day last week, I really didn't have it in me to write. Anyway, I wanted to revisit the last couple weeks in the NBA since my podcast will return to talk hoops this week.

A few weeks ago, I wrote that the Lakers may have made themselves an NBA championship favorite by acquiring Pau Gasol from the Memphis Grizzlies. A quick check on the actual output since he suited up for the Lakers. The Spaniard has averaged 20.5 points, 8.3 rebounds, shooting 64.5% from the floor, and the Lakers are 5-1 in the six games he has played. Early signs indicate great things. If Kobe Bryant can fight through his finger injury and still be productive, the Lakers certainly appear to be on the short list of contenders.

This update isn't about the Lakers though. At least, not directly. This is about the knee jerk reactions the teams in close competition to them have made thus far. The Phoenix Suns owned the best record in the Western Conference and have knocked the Lakers out of the playoffs the last two years, yet they traded away their best perimeter defender and a key cog to their system in Shawn Marion for what's left of Shaquille O'Neal. Banking heavily that he can heal up, get in shape, run, and defend at a championship level again.

Another contender, the Dallas Mavericks, appear to be making another perplexing trade. Acquiring a very long in tooth Jason Kidd from the New Jersey Nets while giving up Devin Harris and some other parts of their depth. Banking that the Kidd who struggles defending quick guards, is a horrible shooter, and is only marginally effective in a half court game like the one Dallas plays can contain burners like Steve Nash, Chris Paul, and Tony Parker while knocking down kickout jumpers created by Dirk Nowitzki and Josh Howard in a slow paced game unlike the type he is accustomed to.

These are huge gambles that smell like panic trades. Any good executive in sports will tell you if you are making moves to counter another team, you have already lost. The Suns and Mavericks are guilty of doing just that and have now backed themselves into a corner. The Mavericks were the best team in the NBA last season and two wins (and some clean refs) away from winning a championship the year before. It seems that the powers that be there are getting to caught up in what others think about them and their competition than what is in their best interest while getting worse in the process.

Shaquille O'Neal and Jason Kidd WERE fantastic players capable of carrying teams to the NBA Finals. They are now shadows of those players as age has caught up with them. As far as I'm concerned, the competitors to the upstart Lakers are now practically paving the path for the purple and gold to get back to the finals. When all is said and done, it could be proof positive that cooler heads do indeed prevail in these situations. Too often, we feed the beast that are our franchises. We see a slump and we panic. We see what our rival opponent does and we decide we have to make a trade to get a "superstar" no matter what the cost. When you are dealing with a desperate GM, you are likely going to win the deal more often than not.

By next season at least, Nets fans will be elated that they got a player the caliber of Devin Harris out of an aging Jason Kidd. If Shawn Marion does test the market (which would be foolish because he won't get nearly as much as he would by picking up his option), Miami will be able to shop the free agent market and find a good post complement to Dwyane Wade. All because Dallas and Phoenix worried too much about what the Lakers were doing and too little about what was in their own best interests.

Maybe in the end, I'm wrong and one of those teams ends up making a run and winning an elusive ring thanks to their bold reactions to the Lakers. For now, in the era of second guessing, I will first guess both of these deals.

Sports Lesson Number, um, I Lost Count

That's why they play the games. Games aren't won on paper. Anything can happen on any given Sunday. These are common sports clichés we hear thrown about all the time. We hear them so often we despise their mention and yet unknowingly say them almost on a whim. Sometimes, however, these clichés ring true. Such was the case in Glendale for Super Bowl XLII.

For two weeks, I masterfully managed to avoid the painfully overdone pregame shows on all the networks with B list "celebrities" getting face time to talk about the upcoming showdown (though Idid catch Rob Schneider on TV because I was at a restaurant with my fiancée). I found more productive uses of my time than listening to the same analysts make the same points in vaguely different ways. Most of which came in the form of video games. Watching game after game of both teams all season, there was no doubt in my mind the Patriots would win the Super Bowl and complete the 19-0 season, making the 1972 Dolphins a footnote in NFL history.

Yet Sunday came around and a game still had to be played. I even had this thought in the back of my mind that the last time I was so positive of one team winning the Super Bowl was when I bet money that the Rams would defeat the Patriots, and the similarities were so glaringly obvious that I chose to continually ignore them. The Giants were an under talented team that I picked to miss the playoffs altogether while the first Super Bowl Patriots team was one I picked to finish with the worst record in the NFL. The Patriots had the most dynamic playmakers the league had ever seen and were coached by the most innovative man in the league in Bill Belichick (much like those Rams with head coach Mike Martz). Finally, the Giants just found ways to wear a team out down the stretch in close playoff wins, exactly like that Patriots team. Yet I just dismissed it the signs, again.

That was, until the game actually started. The Giants drove the field on the opening possession and chewed up two thirds of the first quarter, settling for a field goal to put them up 3-0. The Patriots took the ball and marched right back to score a touchdown and New England was up and running. History, here we come.

Then, something happened. That something was nothing. The defense for the Giants pressured, hit, sacked, and flustered Tom Brady for the first time in a long time. Brady himself was tentative, missing throws, and making bad decisions. Time and again, the Patriots would have to punt. The escaped a Giants drive into their red zone unscathed when Steve Smith gift wrapped an interception in the 2nd quarter, and then the Giants offense kept stalling. Halftime came, and the Patriots held a tedious 7-3 lead. I knew at that point the Giants had completely outplayed the Patriots but still trailed. The real New England Patriots will come out and blow the Giants out of the water in the second half I thought.

Second half came and again, the Patriots were out of sync. They all but abandoned running the ball with Laurence Maroney and seemed to be searching for answers. The Giants front four continued to thoroughly dominate the Patriots stellar offensive line and New England was feeling the pressure (psychologically speaking). Finally, past the halfway point of the 3rd, I turned to my fiancée and said "New York is going to win this game" as if saying this aloud would ensure the Patriots (who I had absolutely no vested interest in) would make history. She responded with disbelief, though I'll point out exactly how astute she is later.

Giants reclaimed the lead with a well orchestrated drive by Eli Manning capped off by a touchdown to David Tyree. All of a sudden, the upset seemed possible. The Patriots followed up by punting, and the Giants had a chance to drive the nail through the coffin when Plaxico Burress broke free down field and Eli Manning overthrew him. The Pats dodged the bullet and got the ball back. Finally, New England showed themselves as the team that started 18-0. Tom Brady was sharp again, Randy Moss was finally getting the ball, and the Patriots effortlessly drove downfield. After missing Moss badly on a After three fairly uneventful quarters, the fourth became a war as the throw to the end zone, Brady atoned for the misfire by finding him wide open to make the score 14-10 New England with less than 3 minutes to play.

Then came Eli Manning's defining drive as a pro. I have dogged the "other Manning" his entire career (all four years of it). Perhaps partially out of me being a huge Peyton Manning fan, but mostly because I expect more out of him when I watch. So here he is, down four points, 83 yards away from a game winning drive. He was great when he had to be. After nearly throwing a killer interception that Asante Samuel dropped on the sideline, Manning settled down.

The defining moment was the play he made escaping the Patriots defensively line, chucking the ball downfield, and David Tyree making the catch of the decade for 32 yards and a first down on 3rd and five. Those are the types of plays that when you play Madden, you know the computer has made the decision that you are NOT going to win this game. A few plays later, Ellis Hobbs stumbled in coverage and left Plaxico Burress wide open for a 13 yard score and 35 ticks on the clock. My jaw dropped and did not close for the remainder of the game. Two plays into the Patriots possession, Tom Brady was sacked for the 5th time. That followed two incomplete bombs to Moss and the upset was complete. Eli Manning is now a champion the year after his brother exorcised his own demons in Miami. Both siblings winning MVP honors for that game. The Patriots have their own record, the most wins in a season for a team that DIDN'T win the Super Bowl. Some more observations below:

• Speaking of Eli Manning (19/34, 255 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT), how is it that he plays one great quarter of football and wins MVP honors while the Giants defensive line dominated from start to finish and gets overshadowed? Taking nothing away from Eli (trust me, this is not the Peyton fan coming out of me, he shouldn't have won his Super Bowl MVP with the game Dominic Rhodes played against the Bears), but Michael Strahan would have been a logical choice, or Justin Tuck, or Osi Umenyiora. They did what no team has been able to consistently do from start to finish in a game, hit and rattle Tom Brady.
• While Laurence Maroney was ineffective (14 carries, 36 yards, 1 touchdown), you wonder why the Patriots completely abandoned the run in the second half. Maroney was kept in check in the 1st half of the AFC title game against San Diego yet erupted in the 2nd, keying their victory. In a game as close as that one, balance would have been better served and they may not have had to come back twice.
• Which brings me to the coaching, Bill Belichick was thoroughly outclassed by Tom Coughlin. A play that is receiving little attention was when the Patriots faced 4th and 13 from the 32 yard line up 7-3 in the 3rd quarter. They opted to go for it (an extremely low percentage play) as opposed to trying a 49 yard field goal with second year kicker Stephen Gostkowski (career long of 52 yards). Gostkowski is 9/13 in his career regular season and playoffs on field goal tries from 40 yards or further (2/2 from 50+). Indoors with no elements affecting him, the Patriots had a 69% chance of 3 points versus an estimated 10% likelihood of converting the play into a first down followed by a touchdown going for it. The numbers favored OVERWHELMINGLY favored the field goal attempt. Sure, Gostkowski may miss the 49 yarder (by no means a guarantee), but that's three points if he makes it. By the way, the Patriots lost by three points.
• Maybe there actually was something to Tom Brady's ankle injury, I haven't seen him play that poorly in years. Great game plan by the Giants defense, poor preparation and inexplicably poor play from the Patriots and Tom Brady.

Finally, an acknowledgment to my fiancée Rachel. As often as I defended Peyton Manning in the with his Super Bowl XLI victory, she was equally quick to come to Eli's defense when I would constantly berate him. I promised her that if Eli actually won the Super Bowl, I would back off and admit he's not as bad as I make him out to be just because he doesn't put up Peyton's numbers. You win babe. You win.

That is what goes into an upset. This is why we watch sports, to see if something unexpected happens. It happened, and for one night, the Giants were the best football team in the NFL. Now, they are Super Bowl champions. *sigh* Seasons like these are what upset me even more as a Lions fan. So many teams in my lifetime have made unexpected runs into contention and to a championship. Yet the Lions are consistently a laughingstock. Well, Bobby Layne told the Lions that they would not win anything for 50 years when he was traded to Pittsburgh. That was in 1958, maybe now the half century curse has expired. Maybe next year...

Pau Makes Lakers Title Contenders

Amazing what a difference 7 months can make. This summer, the biggest story dominating the NBA offseason headlines was Kobe Bryant's displeasure with the Los Angeles Lakers. The star shooting guard went as far as to demand a trade to a contending team. After a couple failed attempts (one notable rumor involving the Bulls which fell through), it appeared that Kobe would at least have to start the season with the only franchise he's ever suited up for. That said, it promised to be a huge distraction for a young team. How could it not be? Their leader had essentially thrown them under the bus by saying he was sick of being with a team that couldn't compete. Yesterday, the Lakers made a huge trade. However, it wasn't involving Kobe. The Lakers completed a deal with the Memphis Grizzlies to acquire 7 foot Spaniard Pau Gasol (to date: averaging 18.9 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 3 assists per game on 50.1% shooting) for Aaron McKie's contract, youngster Javaris Crittenton, Kwame Brown, the draft rights to his brother Marc Gasol, and 1st round picks in 2008 and 2010.

The Lakers gave up a lot of bodies and some first rounders, but they became a lot better overnight. Kwame Brown is a former first overall pick (Michael Jordon's mistake there) and has never shown anything beyond being a big body to defend the post off the bench, Aaron McKie is a contract who likely won't play a second this season (or beyond), Javaris Crittenton is a young player with some upside but had seen his playing time reduced drastically, Marc Gasol is a prospect who from all reports got the shallow end of the gene pool and likely would not have been a contributer for the Lakers in the foreseeable future, and those draft picks will likely be bottom 10 picks. By adding Gasol to an already deep lineup, the Lakers could be scary good if Andrew Bynum (13.1 points, 10.2 rebounds, and 2 blocks per game on 63.6% shooting) comes back strong. So how did the Lakers go from counting the days until Kobe Bryant is dealt to making a blockbuster trade to help Kobe get the Lakers back to the finals?

After a fairly mediocre 9-8 start, the Lakers caught fire and went on a 17-3 tear that raised their record to 26-11. Firmly entrenched as one of the upper echelon teams in a loaded Western Conference. What's ironic is that one of the teams Kobe wanted to go to, the Chicago Bulls, have struggled to get any consistency this season. Was it just Kobe Bryant playing great basketball? Not really, Kobe was still putting up the superstar numbers we've grown accustomed to (to date: averaging 28.4 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 5.2 assists per game on 45.7% shooting). These are similar numbers that he'd put up when the Lakers were hopelessly mediocre and doomed to be eliminated in the first round of the NBA playoffs, the difference is the supporting cast.

While Lamar Odom has been once again playing the role of over matched #2 scorer, former high school lottery pick Andrew Bynum took an enormous leap forward until his season was derailed by a knee injury (he's hoping to return sometime in March). The efforts of Kobe were also being supplemented by the return of veteran Derek Fisher, and the development of youngsters Jordan Farmar and Ronny Turiaf as well as a pretty deep bench in addition to those players. So while Kobe Bryant has still dominated their headlines (and rightfully so), you have to acknowledge the development of the supporting cast. Add a proven scorer like Gasol without having to touch those players and you have a team that can go deep in the playoffs, even with a slew of quality teams in the Western Conference.

While toiling in anonymity in his time with the Grizzlies, Gasol has quietly developed into one of the better front court players in the NBA. While not an ideal center due to his lack of strength against some of the NBA's big boys, he is a tough matchup because of his versatility. He can put the ball on the floor, shoot from the perimeter, and find open teammates for easy buckets (something that will come into play more in LA who has more finishers). Should Bynum be able to come back and play as effectively as he had been all year, the Lakers could be the favorites to win the Western Conference. A playoff series win would be a first step as the Kobe Bryant show has failed to win one ever since Shaquille O'Neal was traded to the Miami Heat. Before this trade, Los Angeles was already a top 10 team offensively and defensively (don't let the 101.5 points allowed per game fool you, they play the 5th fastest pace in the NBA and are 8th in defensive efficiency).

This trade gives the Lakers another body to man the post and takes pressure off Lamar Odom to not have to be Robin to Kobe Bryant's Batman. In the span of 7 months, the Lakers have gone from a team Kobe Bryant wanted to leave for a title contender to a team that is, well, a title contender. Talk about the Suns, Mavericks, and defending champion Spurs all you want (and with good reason), but the Lakers have just bought themselves a place in the same sentence when talking about the West's elite.