A look at the four major sports (NFL, NBA, MLB and NHL) with relevant tidbits from other sports when I feel like it. Game breakdowns, predictions, opinions and other musings. Hope you enjoy it.

Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Mets become NL East Favorites With Santana

Well, all of us can sleep easier at night now, the Johan Santana is he staying or is he going drama concluded this afternoon as the Minnesota ace lefty was dealt to the New York Mets for a package of prospects (none of them the top prizes of the Mets system by the way). Suffice to say, the Mets got a steal from the Twins and it seems he was traded for 70 cents on the dollar at best.

In 2007, the New York Mets finished 88-74, one game behind the NL East winning Phillies. What's hidden in that is the fact that they staged one of the biggest collapses in the history of the game. Holding a 7 game lead in the division with 17 games remaining, the Mets lost 12 of their final 17 games. Their patchwork rotation couldn't give them innings down the stretch and their bullpen wore down. In the end, it was another forgettable season that ended with a bitter taste in the mouths of Met faithful.

So how does Johan Santana help with this after veteran bulldog Tom Glavine returned to Atlanta in the offseason? In my opinion, the Mets are getting the best pitcher in the game today. Playing in the vastly superior (especially offensively) American League, Santana has won two Cy Young awards, led the league in strikeouts three times, and in ERA twice. He is the rare power strikeout pitcher with pinpoint control (plus he's left-handed). Take a look at his last four seasons with the Twins:

  • 2004: 20-6, 2.61 ERA, 228 innings, 265 strikeouts, 54 walks, 0.92 WHIP, 24 homers allowed
  • 2005: 16-7, 2.87 ERA, 231 2/3 innings, 238 strikeouts, 45 walks, 0.97 WHIP, 22 homers allowed
  • 2006: 19-6, 2.77 ERA, 233 2/3 innings, 245 strikeouts, 47 walks, 0.99 WHIP, 24 homers allowed
  • 2007: 15-13, 3.33 ERA, 219 innings, 235 strikeouts, 52 walks, 1.07 WHIP, 33 homers allowed

While you can certainly argue that Santana has been slipping the last few years and he did fade down the stretch, he still finished in the top ten in ERA, innings pitched, and strikeouts in the American League. Santana will command top dollar when his contract expires, which makes the Mets a logical team for him to go to as they have the financial resources to lock him up long term. With the Phillies still looking for pitching help, the Braves facing health questions at the front end of their rotation, this move puts the Mets ahead of those teams at the moment. This is still an offense with dangerous hitters like David Wright, Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, and even Carlos Delgado at his advanced age. To this point, I felt the Mets had a bad offseason after Glavine walked and they traded their best prospect Lastings Milledge to Washington for what appears to be spare parts. With an ace like Santana in the fold, pitchers such as John Maine and Oliver Perez can pitch in the middle of the rotation where they belong and they won't have to hold their breaths over the health of Pedro Martinez.

The addition of Santana adds at least 5 wins to a good Mets squad. After narrowly missing the playoffs in 2007, the Mets should return now. This deal sews up the National League East for the Mets as far as I'm concerned, it is now their division to lose. If some of the health question marks are answered, this could be the best team in the National League. If they get Santana locked up long term, you're looking at a likely 5 year run where they could be the dominant team in the senior circuit. Great move by the Mets.

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