Anatomy of an Ace

Superstars are a rare breed, that upper two percent of athletic prowess who provide once-in-a-lifetime moments on a routine basis. Superstars catch your attention and turn a passing interest into a life long obsession for their sports.

As one of those obsessed sports fans, I have always been intrigued at the way superstars are perceived in the sport lexicon. I am intrigued because it is not a uniform perception. For example, mention Tom Brady and Peyton Manning in a sentence and it turns into a holy war of debating credentials, one that I have participated in on more than a few occasions.

The Detroit Tigers possess one such superstar in 28-year old starting pitcher Justin Verlander. He takes the mound tonight looking to get the Tigers back on track against their AL Central rivals, the Chicago White Sox, in a crucial late season series. Verlander's 2011 narrative to date is as follows: an immensely talented young pitcher who has for years tantalized the fan base with potential and has figured out how to become an ace. It's that narrative that fascinates me to no end.

At first glance, the easy explanation is correct. Through 22 starts, Verlander is 13-5 with a 2.24 ERA (3rd best in the AL) with an AL leading 162 strikeouts in 165 innings. His ERA is nearly a run and a half better than his career mark of 3.59 and his strikeout to walk ratio (4.91) is two strikeouts better than his career average (2.92). This special season has him on the short list and maybe even the favorite to win the AL Cy Young award. So he has finally "figured it out" and become an ace this season? I don't think it's that simple.

Verlander's perception among the Tigers' faithful has always amazed me. He burst onto the scene of the surprising 2006 squad, going 17-9 with a 3.63 ERA en route to winning the AL Rookie of the Year award and helping Detroit make its first World Series appearance since 1984.

Since then, the perception I gather is of a guy who has (until now) not progressed and not been the ace the Tigers' rotation needs. It's that perception that makes me think that the fans by and large do not appreciate just how great a pitcher Verlander has been over the last few years.

Verlander followed up his smashing debut with a 2007 season that saw him surpass 200 innings pitched and add 59 strikeouts (183) to his rookie total of 124. He went 18-6 with a 3.66 ERA, lowered his WHIP from 1.33 to 1.23, struck out 12 Milwaukee Brewers en route to throwing a no-hitter on June 12, made his first All-Star team and finished fifth in the AL Cy Young voting as a 24-year old.

If I had to pinpoint the frustration with Verlander, it would have to be the 2008 season. After missing the playoffs despite having the best record in baseball at the All-Star break in 2007, Detroit acquired slugger Miguel Cabrera, shortstop Edgar Renteria and lefty starter Dontrelle Willis, creating the most hyped Tigers' season in my lifetime. Instead, the epic lineup that was supposed to score 1,000 runs finished fourth in the AL with 821 and the team went 74-88, good for last place in the AL Central. Verlander did not help matters, going 11-17 with a 4.84 ERA, walking a career-worst 3.9 batters per nine innings and losing nearly a full strikeout per nine innings (7.3) from his 2007 total (8.2).

However, something happened to Verlander after that 2008 disappointment. The narrative is that Verlander has finally become an ace this season, and I say it happened two years prior.

A quick look at JV's last three seasons:

• 2009 - The unquestioned leader of the Tigers' staff. Shaved nearly a run and a half off his 2008 ERA, finishing with a career-best 3.45 mark. Led the AL with career-highs in wins (19), innings pitched (240) and strikeouts (269). Made his second All-Star team, won his last three starts (including 7 and 2/3 strong innings against the White Sox to force game 163 against the Twins) and finished 3rd in the AL Cy Young race at age 26.
• 2010 - Went 18-9 and posted a career-best 3.37 ERA. Lowered WHIP to a career-best 1.16. Made his third All-Star team in the last four seasons. Eclipsed 200 strikeouts (219 total) for the second-straight season. Fanned seven or more batters in seven of his last eight starts. Posted a 2.89 ERA after the All-Star break despite injuries coining the term "Miggy and the Mudhens" for his teammates.
• 2011 - Narrative is unfinished, but 22 starts in he leads the league in innings (165) and strikeouts (162) while ranking third in ERA (2.24). Pitched into the 8th inning in 13 of his last 15 starts. Tossed his second career no-hitter at Toronto on May 7. Recorded nine-straight quality starts from May 29 to the All-Star break, a span where he allowed only seven runs (six earned) in 71 innings (0.76 ERA). Earned fourth All-Star appearance in five seasons (third straight).

Here are common complaints on Verlander:

• He doesn't pitch deep enough into games. - Except he's averaged nearly seven innings per start the last three seasons, led the AL in innings pitched in 2009, finished third in 2010 and currently leads the AL in 2011.
• He doesn't make the Tigers better. - Since 2009, the Tigers are 221-206 (.518 win pct.). In that span, the Tigers are 58-32 (.644) when Verlander starts.
• He doesn't get it done down the stretch. - JV's ERA after the All-Star break in 2009 and 2010: 3.52, 2.89. Came through with big start in 2009 regular season finale, pitching the Tigers to game 163 against the Twins, where he sat in the dugout and watched the Twins steal away a playoff spot.

At only 28 years old, Verlander has an impressive array of credentials. He won a Rookie of the Year award, is a four-time All-Star, has pitched in a World Series and finished in the top five in AL Cy Young voting twice (likely three times after this year). Since the start of the 2009 season, Verlander is 50-23 with a 3.10 ERA and 650 strikeouts in 629.3 innings. He also has a 1.10 WHIP and a strikeout to walk ratio (3.89) of nearly four to one. If that's not an ace, then I guess there's just no pleasing anybody.

The common narrative for JV this season is that of a good pitcher becoming an ace. The true story is he is an ace having a career season. Verlander didn't become a superstar in 2011, he has been one for years now. It's time for everyone to just sit back and enjoy it. Starting with tonight in Chicago.

Fun Lions Facts

I'm going to keep this rehash short and sweet, but in the midst of watching another lost Lions season and witnessing the team on a 3-34 stretch since a 6-2 midseason mark in 2007, I figured I would put some random factoids on the Lions ineptitude. I'm open to any suggestions to add to this list. Enjoy and Happy Holidays from the perennially dormant blog, Beyond the Games.

The last Lions...
Win: Nov. 22, 2009 vs. Cleveland (38-37)
Road win: Oct. 28, 2007 at Chicago (16-7)
Divisional win: Same
Winning streak: Three games, Oct. 21 through Nov. 4, 2007

Last 37 games (3-34) breakdown
Allowing 30+ points: 22 times (1-21)
Allowing 40+ points: Eight times (0-8)
Scoring 20+ points: 17 times (2-15)
Scoring 30+ points: Once (1-0)
Scoring 40+ points: None
Games decided by 10+ points: 23 (0-23)
Games decided by 20+ points: 12 (0-12)
Games decided by 7 points or less: 10 (3-7)

Kwame Brown Making 4th NBA Stop

Make the Detroit Pistons another in a growing list of teams to take a chance on the first pick of the 2001 NBA Draft. On Monday, Pistons President Joe Dumars took a risk and signed the 6'11" forward/center to a two year contract worth $8 million.

The Pistons have been searching for some help on the front court and hope that Brown, 26, can fulfill his potential here after disappointing stints in Washington, Los Angeles, and Memphis. His agent, Mark Bartelstein, sees an opportunity for a fresh start.

"He is a tremendous talent, and we think this can be a kind of rebirth for his career," Bartelstein told the Detroit Free Press.

In seven seasons, Brown's averaged 7.5 points and 5.7 rebounds per game in 404 contests (186 starts). Last season, Brown posted averages of 4.8 points and 4.9 rebounds in 38 games, starting 15 times. He's also appeared in 15 playoff games, averaging 9.9 points and 5.9 rebounds. He began the season with the Los Angeles Lakers before being traded to the Memphis Grizzlies in February for Pau Gasol.

The addition of Brown gives the Pistons some experience off the bench. Brown has played more games than young reserves Jason Maxiell (175) and Amir Johnson (73) combined. The deal puts the Pistons over the salary cap for the upcoming season so it appears likely no more big moves will be made.

Brown has only been on one team that's advanced beyond the first round of the playoffs (Washington in 2005), but he joins a Detroit Pistons team that has been to the Eastern Conference Finals six straight seasons, appearing in the NBA Finals twice, and winning a title in 2004. However, since losing game 7 of the 2005 NBA Finals to the Spurs, the Pistons have not gone past the Eastern Conference Finals the last three years. The core of a team that won 59 games last season (2nd in the NBA) looks to be returning, and they hope first year head coach Michael Curry, the development of their young bench players, and the addition of Brown can rectify that.

Another Beginning...

After mentioning that we're in the dog days of Summer yesterday, today is the day that ninety percent of sports fans come out of hibernation. Training Camps across the country opened up today. You know what that means, football season is almost upon us. I have managed to avoid the forced chaos the machine (namely ESPN) has brought about for months. In fact, I have deliberately tried to keep away from thinking about football ever since the worldwide leader published their 32 team power rankings in May and proceeded to dedicate segments of Sportscenter to debating the selections. Yes, May. Before all the free agents are signed, before any trades are made, even before minicamps come around for players to skip.

Well today means I can no longer ignore the fever. With football season comes everything else: a bunch of chumps coming on television beating one topic to death (Brett Favre gave them their ammo this season but Chad Johnson would have sufficed beforehand), seven hundred different player rankings from so called fantasy experts with can't miss advice sure to win you your league (none of them particularly smarter than the rest), and another miserable Lions season that wastes 15 of my Sundays along with Thanksgiving. Oh, the latter is just me and a segment of masochistic folks who yearn to see some kind of direction (preferably positive) from this inept franchise.

Am I being too negative? Perhaps, but I'm also being realistic. After seven straight losing seasons and missing the playoffs every year since 1999, I think I'm allowed a certain amount of pessimism. They almost had me last year, I was so close to actually believing I saw a light at the end of the tunnel. A 6-2 start capped off by a smack down of the Denver Broncos had me entertaining visions of going to the postseason. The end result was a pitiful 1-7 finish and a 7-9 overall record, a four win improvement from the year before and their best mark since going 9-7 in 2000.

So with apparent progress made last season, what happened next? Well, after finishing 16th in the NFL in points last year (their best rank since 1999), the team proceeded to show Offensive Coordinator Mike Martz the door to let Jim Colletto call plays (something he has never done at the professional level). Now, Martz absolutely infuriated me for the complete lack of balance in his play calling and he seems to be living off his reputation from the Rams high flying years (1999-2001 most notably). That said, I guess you can't argue with the results. Especially compared to those of his predecessors.

The logic behind the change was to have someone who would actually call a few running plays and not expose Jon Kitna to so many hits behind a suspect offensive line. I can buy that. However, the Lions decided to let go of their leading rusher from last season, the oft injured Kevin Jones. Leaving the workload in the hands of notorious fumbler Tatum Bell (who didn't play at all after week 5), 3rd round pick Kevin Smith, and injury prone 3rd year back Brian Calhoun. The wild card here is Smith, a player who was drafted out of UCF presumably because he is familiar with the blocking scheme Colletto wants to implement. Until he proves himself on Sundays, however, there appears to be a serious lack of talent at runningback.

On the other side of the ball, the Lions defense was statistically the worst in the National Football League last season. While the rush defense was sub par, the pass defense was an albatross (31st in pass yards/game allowed). To that end, the Lions nabbed two new starters at corner via free agency (Brian Kelly) and trade (Leigh Bodden). They will be improvement if for no other reason than they can't be any worse than Fernando Bryant and Travis Fisher were.

The acquisition of Bodden cost them their most talented (and most frustrating) defensive lineman Shaun Rogers. Head coach Rod Marinelli is credited with developing several Pro-Bowl D-linemen as an assistant in Tampa, but has his work cut out for him with this group. They brought in Chuck Darby as a pulse to man the interior next to the debilitating contract known as Cory Redding. When the Lions were winning games, the front four provided enough pressure to mask the ineptitude of the secondary. The secondary is better, but now the front four is a huge question mark. It's always one step forward and two steps backwards with this franchise. Unless DeWayne White can recover from his injuries of a year ago, the defensive line has no legitimate pass rushers and the Lions will find a new way to get beat on that side of the ball. Dieing a slow painful death on the ground as opposed to having their brains blown out through the air.

The Lions are using a pretty awful slogan in their season ticket commercials "Do You Believe in Now?". Um, no. For a lot of the reasons I just stated. I could go on, but I won't for now. I've said enough. Though I will be doing some research/predictions fairly soon as we get into the preseason.

Alive and...Well?

This is the trying time of year for baseball fans commonly referred to as the "dog days of Summer". The season is well past the halfway point and the standings are beginning to have added meaning. As I write this, the Detroit Tigers clinched their first series win over the lowly Kansas City Royals and go for a sweep this afternoon. They sit at 51-49, 5.5 games behind the first place Chicago White Sox and 4 behind the surprising Minnesota Twins (the best bad baseball team I have ever seen).

Months before the season, I wrote a glowing review about the Tigers blockbuster trade for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis. I noted a concern about Willis' spontaneously poor command the past two seasons, but also figured that he could at least be about league average and that would be enough with the lineup the Tigers boasted. Instead, he has been an absolute disaster (0-1, 10.32 ERA, 21 walks in 11 1/3 innings). Cabrera got off to a slow start, then got hurt, and his defense was so bad he got switched to first base. To be fair, Cabrera is starting to hit like the Tigers expected him to now that he's gotten used to the American League (.324 average, 6 homeruns, 20 RBI, 1.002 OPS in July).

To quote and make fun of myself at the conclusion of the December blog entry, "worst case scenario is the Tigers win 95 games and return to the playoffs. Even in a tough American League, I would put money on the Tigers winning 100 games and the World Series in 2008". Samsonite, I was way off. Worst case scenario from back then is looking like best case scenario right now. To win 95 games, the Tigers would have to go 44-18 the rest of the way. That's a tall order, especially considering how hot they had to get just to get over .500 (25-12 since a 26-37 start). Can they do it? Sure, nothing is impossible until it is. Will they? I don't know, but let's take a look at how the Tigers have done the last three seasons up to the 100 game mark and then afterwards.

2005-First 100: 50-50 (.500). Last 62: 21-41 (.339).
2006-First 100: 67-33 (.670). Last 62: 28-34 (.452).
2007-First 100: 60-40 (.600). Last 62: 28-34 (.452).
Total-First 100: 177-123 (.590). Last 62: 77-109 (.414).

As you can see, the Tigers need to reverse a troubling trend. In 2005, the Tigers really weren't a contender and struggled to get to .500 most of the season before injuries caught up to them. The last two seasons, however, the Tigers were all alone atop of the American League Central division at the 100 game mark. The last two seasons, the Tigers fizzled down the stretch and gave away the division lead. They settled for the Wild Card in 2006 after being in front by 10 games in early August and missed the postseason altogether a year ago (finishing a whopping 8 games behind Cleveland). There's no lead to protect this time around, the Tigers are in the position of chasing two teams in their division. There's still some time left to do it, but this team can ill afford to rest on their laurels like the last two years.

Fortunately for the Tigers, they have some positives to build on. They've got the best record in baseball since they fell to 26-37, Justin Verlander is pitching like the ace the team envisioned, the bullpen is getting healthy at the back end with the returns of Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya, and the offense is producing at the level everyone thought they would at the beginning of the season. If all those trends continue, you have to like their chances to be relevant down the stretch. That is really all you can ask for given how poorly they started. I'm not sure if the Tigers have enough assets to trade for some help at the deadline and I don't know if they should trade them if they did, but this team has a steep climb ahead regardless of how the roster looks after July 31st.

As I previously stated, we're in the dog days of Summer. If the dogs in Detroit still want to have their day, they'll have to show up for the second half. Their margin for error is gone, they need to finish up the Royals today and steamroll ahead in the division. The games they blew early don't matter now. To make the playoffs, it has to be full speed ahead from here.

NHL First Round Preview

Well, I think I can finally stop with the whole work has been stressing me out so I haven't found time to write. Thankfully, one of my favorite times of year in sports is starting out this week so it's the perfect time to come out of hibernation. The Stanley Cup Playoffs begin this week Wednesday and have myself, Red Wings fans, and die hard fans of 15 other teams anxiously awaiting game 1.

The NHL Playoffs are a cut above the rest for my taste. You see all the grit and determination teams display as they fight tooth and nail to survive a best of seven series. With the tradition of the playoff beard, Brendan Shanahan can turn into Grizzly Adams overnight. Beyond that, it's the timelessness of it all. A contest from October to early April will take two and a half hours tops to conclude. In the playoffs, a 7 PM faceoff can continue until 3 o'clock the next morning. Legends are created and spirits are crushed faster than a slapshot. It is professional sports at its finest.

That's probably about as dramatic as I can get to set the tone for the coming months so with that I am going to go series by series for the 1st round of the playoffs.

Western Conference
1. Detroit vs. 8. Nashville

How they got here-The Detroit Red Wings took the league by force early and often this season and were the league's most consistent team from start to finish. Save for an absurd amount of injuries leading to an awful February, the Wings built themselves a cushion and never appeared in danger of relinquishing it. They won the President's Trophy yet again, allowed the fewest goals, and scored the 3rd most. Star seasons out of Henrik Zetterberg (43 goals, 92 points), Pavel Datsyuk (66 assists, 97 points), and Nicklas Lidstrom (defensemen leading 70 points) combined with the emergence of their younger players and early dominance of now backup goaltender Chris Osgood (pre All-Star break: 20-3-2, 1.87 goals against average, .925 save%, 3 shutouts) led the way.

The Nashville Predators began the season in turmoil, forced to dump the likes of Paul Kariya, Peter Forsberg, Scott Hartnell, Kimmo Timonen, and Tomas Vokoun by cost cutting ownership. Barry Trotz, the only coach the franchise has ever known, turned in arguably his best performance ever. Willing a club with an unsettled goaltending situation and injuries abound to nab the 8th spot in the Western Conference playoffs in the final week of the season. The production of Jason Arnott and JP Dumont (72 points apiece) combined with the late emergence of goaltender Dan Ellis (23-10-3, 2.34 GAA, .924 save%, 6 SO) allowed the Predators to do just enough to keep their season going.

Tale of the Tape---------Detroit--------Nashville
Goals Scored---------------252 (3rd)--------227 (12th)
Goals Allowed--------------179 (1st)---------224 (t-15th)
Penalties in Minutes--------937 (1st)---------1027 (8th)
Power Play-----------------20.7% (3rd)------14.8% (27th)
Penalty Kill-----------------84.0% (8th)------85.4% (3rd)
Season Series: Detroit 5-3

Breakdown-This is a big mismatch for the Predators and likely the perfect opening round opponent for Detroit as they won't have to worry about logging a lot of miles in travel right from the get go. The Predators have fought the Red Wings tough all season long and are still looking for that elusive 1st series win in franchise history while the Red Wings hope to build upon last year's Conference Finals run.

Forwards-Up front, the Red Wings boast five players who tallied 20 or more goals this season and another who finished with 19. Four Predators fit that mold and they'll need to get a lot out of them. Even inconsistent players like Mikael Samuelsson and Jiri Hudler have the ability to score and put up over 40 points this season. From an offensive standpoint, the Red Wings have a decided advantage while holding their own in grit with the additions of Darren McCarty, Aaron Downey, Dallas Drake, and Justin Abdelkader (a player who signed just last week who is worth keeping an eye on). Nashville will rely heavily on their big guns Arnott, Dumont, Alexander Radulov, and Martin Erat as they have little help around them on the attack. Edge: Red Wings

Defensemen-The best unit in their own end in the league will get a boost with the return of deadline acquisition Brad Stuart. With him back, the Red Wings boast a top 4 defense group that rivals any other team combined with Nicklas Lidstrom, Brian Rafalski, and Nicklas Kronwall. All of whom contribute a significant amount offensively as well. With veteran Chris Chelios and likely turnover machine Andreas Lilja providing minutes of mixed effectiveness in between. Nashville needs Marek Zidlicky to be the leader of a young group that on paper is vastly overmatched to hang in. Edge: Red Wings

Goaltending-While Dominik Hasek (27-10-3, 2.14 GAA, .902 save%, 5 SO) has been sporadic all season long due to a vast array of injuries, coach Mike Babcock has named him the starter to begin the playoffs. Of encouragement are his numbers after a slow start in the first two months. Since December, Hasek has gone 21-5-2 with a 1.80 goals against average, .913 save% and 5 shutouts. Dan Ellis has really solidified a position that was a weakness for Nashville early in the season as Chris Mason struggled. This is really where Nashville's only chance lies in this series. Ellis recently had a shutout streak that lasted 233 minutes and 39 seconds before Johan Franzen broke it with an overtime goal in a 1-0 Red Wings victory. Hasek is a battle tested playoff performer who appears to finally be healthy while Ellis is getting his first taste of the second season. Edge: Predators

Coaching-Mike Babcock has shined in his time with the Red Wings since coming from Anaheim. The Red Wings have won the President's Trophy every year he has been there and he took an injury riddled lineup within 2 wins of the Stanley Cup Finals last season. Barry Trotz has done a fantastic job getting the most out of his club, but has yet to win a playoff series. Edge: Red Wings

The Pick-The Red Wings balance is just too much as the Predators are dinged up and running on fumes. This club is focused and ready for a deep playoff run. Red Wings in 5.

2. San Jose vs. 7. Calgary

How they got here-Tabbed by many to breakthrough and win it all, the San Jose Sharks stumbled out of the gate and developed an annoying habit of poor play on home ice and were a paltry 31-21-8 in late February. At that point, the paper giants showed up. As the Sharks went on a tear, going a span of 20 games without a regulation loss and accumulating 38 out of a possible 40 points in their 18-0-2 stretch. Giving the Detroit Red Wings a slight scare for the President's Trophy going into the final week. Scoring was a problem as they went from 6th in the league with 256 goals last season to 216 this year (19th). Joe Thornton had another stellar campaign (96 points, league leading 67 assists) and goaltender Evgeni Nabokov (77 starts, 46-21-8, 2.14 GAA, .910 save%, 6 SO) proved he could shoulder the load after backup Vesa Toskala left for Toronto.

The Calgary Flames were an up and down team all season and at one point saw head coach Mike Keenan call out goaltender Miikka Kiprusoff for his lackluster play early on. They rebounded well enough to make the playoffs as captain Jarome Iginla led the way with 50 goals and a career high 98 points while defenseman Dion Phaneuf (17 goals, 60 points, +12) posted a career season leading the blue line. However, there wasn't a lot of scoring depth as the Flames dropped from 7th in scoring in 2007 to 13th this year. Newcomers Alex Tanguay (58 points, 23 fewer than last season) and Owen Nolan (32 points) disappointed while Kiprusoff (76 starts, 39-26-10, 2.69 GAA, .906 save%, 2 SO) had a frustratingly inconsistent campaign in net.

Tale of the Tape---------San Jose----------Calgary
Goals Scored---------------216 (19th)-----------226 (13th)
Goals Allowed--------------187 (3rd)------------224 (t-15th)
Penalties in Minutes--------1075 (12th)---------1342 (26th)
Power Play-----------------18.8% (10th)--------16.8% (19th)
Penalty Kill-----------------85.8% (1st)---------81.4% (20th)
Season Series: Calgary 3-1

Breakdown-For a good portion of the season, both of these clubs were mired in mediocrity. Then the Sharks acquired Buffalo standout defenseman Brian Campbell (19 points in 20 games) at the trade deadline and really took off from there. Campbell gave them what they haven't had since trading Brad Stuart for Joe Thornton a few years back, a puck moving defenseman who could put up points and join the rush. The Flames have shown the ability over the last few years to play shutdown defense, but really fell off in the category this season. Calgary will go only as far as Miika Kiprusoff can take them.

Forwards-By the numbers, you would have to go with the Flames just because they had a little more balance in their point totals up front as Iginla, Kristian Huselius, Daymond Langkow, and Dion Phaneuf all amassed 60 points or more. After Joe Thornton's 96 points, the next closest was Milan Michalek's 55. Quite a dropoff. Captain Patrick Marleau (48 points, -19) was non-existent until the last couple months and Jonathan Cheechoo (37 points in 69 games) continued his fall from grace. Jeremy Roenick (33 points) could be an X-factor for the Sharks in his comeback campaign. Edge: Flames

Defensemen-This one could be close and if the Sharks were without Brian Campbell, the Flames would have a decided edge in terms of offensive production. Fact is, Campbell is playing great with San Jose and should at least keep the offensive production close enough against Phaneuf and Adrian Aucoin (35 points). However, the Sharks have a decided edge in responsible defensive blue liners. Edge: Sharks

Goaltending-Coming into this season, I would have gone with Calgary with Kiprusoff hands down even though he used to be Nabokov's backup. However, Nabokov really came on as a number one goaltender this season and proved he could carry the load. All that is missing from Nabokov's resume that Kiprusoff has is Stanley Cup Finals appearance. At this point, I will go with Nabokov, but it's close. Edge: Sharks

Coaching-Mike Keenan is a long time removed from being an upper echelon coach in his years with the Rangers while Ron Wilson has consistently had the Sharks on the short list of west contenders since arriving. Wilson had to deal with heightened expectations this year and a slow start. By December, he was literally coaching for his job. Now, they are the hottest team in the NHL coming into the playoffs. Edge: Sharks

The Pick-This should be an absolute war that will test the fortitude of both sides. In the end though, the Sharks have shown the ability to shut down elite players like Iginla and the Flames defense has been suspect all season. I wouldn't be surprised if the teams split the first four games, but the Sharks will prevail led by a stellar performance from Joe Thornton. Sharks in 6.

3. Minnesota vs. 6. Colorado

How they got here-The Minnesota Wild turned in another ho hum top 10 defensive performance thanks to defensive guru head coach Jacques Lemaire. While the trapping system they employ limits them offensively, it keeps them in games and gives them a chance to make the playoffs in spite of their shortage of talent. Still, the Wild have enough offense to get by led by Marian Gaborik (42 goals, 41 assists, 83 points) while getting solid play from goaltender Niklas Backstrom (33-13-8, 2.31 GAA, .920 save%, 4 SO).

The Colorado Avalanche had just about everything go against them this season. Injuries kept them from getting into any kind of consistent rhythm and they were to crucial players. Captain Joe Sakic (44 games), leading scorer Paul Stastny (66), offseason prize Ryan Smythe (55), and young scorer Marek Svatos (62, done for the year) were among the many affected. The Avalanche were also plagued by inconsistency in goal and a lack of quality players on defense. Colorado decided to go back to the future by signing Peter Forsberg (14 points in 9 games) out of retirement and trading for defenseman Adam Foote at the deadline. The Avs and coach Joel Quenneville hope that along with the resurgent play in net of Jose Theodore (28-21-3, 2.44 GAA, .910 save%, 3 SO) will spark a playoff run.

Tale of the Tape-------Minnesota--------Colorado
Goals Scored--------------220 (17th)----------224 (15th)
Goals Allowed-------------190 (t-8th)---------216 (t-12th)
Penalties in Minutes-------1098 (16th)--------995 (5th)
Power Play----------------18.9% (8th)--------14.6% (28th)
Penalty Kill----------------85.2% (4th)--------81.4% (21st)
Season Series: Minnesota 5-3

Breakdown-Colorado is going to have to be patient and disciplined against the grinding Wild. The bulk of Minnesota's offense comes on the power play. While Colorado finished a mediocre 15th in goals, they are good offensive club when healthy. They appear to finally have their weapons back (save for Svatos) which should help a power play that was awful this season. It couldn't hurt it anyway. Minnesota just has to keep on doing what they've been doing, frustrating teams defensively and executing well on special teams. Niklas Backstrom is not a proven playoff goalie to this point, so he'll be under pressure to perform in the low scoring affairs this series is sure to feature.

Forwards-Now that the Avalanche are healthy up front, this is a humongous advantage for the Avs. Sakic and Forsberg have been through the battles and came out on top a couple times with the Avalanche, but Paul Stastny (71 points in 66 games) is primed for a breakout playoff performance and they have a stable of good forwards in Andrew Brunette (19 goals, 59 points), Millan Hejduk (29 goals, 54 points), and Ryan Smythe (14 goals, 37 points in 55 games) among others. The Wild have more punch than normal with Gaborik, the emergine Pierre-Marc Bouchard (50 assists, 63 points), Brian Rolston (31 goals, 59 points), and Pavol Demitra (54 points in 68 games). Mikko Koivu (42 points in 57 games) could be a difference maker for the Wild. Edge: Avalanche

Defensemen-Aside from John-Michael Liles, the Avs are stacked with stay at home defensemen who don't join the rush and don't contribute much offensively. They just try not to make mistakes in their own end. The Wild have some better puck movers and a defensive system that lends itself to helping the blue liners more than Colorado. Brent Burns (43 points, +12) could be a big X-Factor for the Wild. He is a good young player. Minnesota just has a better mix of puck movers and stout defenders. Edge: Wild

Goaltending-This is where the series will be won or lost. Jose Theodore really played well after the all-star break and took over the top spot on the goaltending depth chart from Peter Budaj. Though if he struggles, Quenneville won't hesitate to make the switch. Niklas Backstrom has played excellent the last two regular seasons and held his own in a 5 game 1st round loss to the Ducks last year (2.22 GAA, .922 save%), but he has yet to put the Wild on his back and take them to the next level. Based on regular season numbers, I'll go with the Wild by a hair here. Edge: Wild

Coaching-Two very good coaches in Lemaire and Quenneville. Jacques Lemaire has a knack of getting the very most out of his team ever since he guided the New Jersey Devils to an improbable Stanley Cup title in 1995. Joel Quenneville has been to the postseason numerous times but has only once been to even a conference final. To me he's more of a good but not great coach. That said, he did a fantastic job piecing this team together despite all the injuries and inconsistent play between the pipes. Edge: Wild

The Pick-I have a funny feeling about this series. I think Peter Forsberg is determined to prove his ankle is stable and the Avalanche are getting a lot of goal scorers back into their lineup at the right time. While I gave the edge to the Wild in every category but forwards, I think the advantage Colorado has outweighs the advantage Minnesota has in the others. I could see this series going the distance, but I think Colorado pulls it off. Avalanche in 7.

4. Anaheim vs. 5. Dallas

How they got here-Talk about a Stanley Cup hangover. The defending champion Anaheim Ducks found themselves below .500 in December and outside the playoffs before defenseman Scott Niedermeyer (25 points in 48 games) decided to come out of retirement. Leading goal scorer from last season Teemu Selanne (12 goals, 23 points in 26 games) did the same a couple months later. However, the Ducks had to let go of backup goaltender Ilya Bryzgalov (who later starred in Phoenix) and traded last year's 2nd leading scorer Andy McDonald to make enough cap room to bring them back. They struggled to score all season (28th in goals) after being dynamic a year ago (t-8th). Thankfully, another stellar season out of Jean-Sebastian Giguere (35-17-6, 2.12 GAA, .922 save%, 4 SO) coinciding with brilliant defense (2nd fewest goals allowed) rallied the Ducks to the 4th seed in a tough Pacific Division.

It was a roller coaster season for the Dallas Stars. After getting off to a slow start in October, the organization cleaned house in the front office and Brett Hull took over. Then they took off and looked like they may pass Detroit for the top spot in February led by an all-star season from Mike Ribeiro (83 points in 76 games). They acquired 2004 Conn Smythe winner Brad Richards (11 points in 12 games) from Tampa Bay at the deadline and then fell all the way down to the 5th seed. Sergei Zubov (35 points in 40 games) was having a Norris caliber season on defense before he went down with a foot injury in January. His status for the playoffs is uncertain. Goaltender Marty Turco (32-21-6, 2.32 GAA, .909 save%, 3 SO) was inconsistent, leaving more questions about his future in Dallas and ability to win big playoff games

Tale of the Tape--------Anaheim-------Dallas
Goals Scored---------------197 (28th)--------237 (9th)
Goals Allowed--------------184 (2nd)---------204 (6th)
Penalties in Minutes--------1481 (30th)------1178 (21st)
Power Play-----------------16.6% (20th)-----18.1% (13th)
Penalty Kill-----------------83.1% (12th)-----85.5% (2nd)
Season Series: Dallas 5-3

Breakdown-It is a mystery how this Anaheim team is so punchless offensively. On paper, they are a deeper team than last year in every position save for goaltending yet they just can't seem to put the puck in the net. Dallas does not have much momentum coming into the playoffs and needs Marty Turco to recapture the form he displayed in the Vancouver series a year ago where he almost single-handedly dug the Stars out of a 3-1 hole. Dallas is a really tough team to figure out, and their success depends on the return and effective play of Sergei Zubov.

Forwards-Ryan Getzlaf (58 assists, 82 points) had a great season for the Ducks, but there's a big scoring dropoff after him. There are physical players who can score up and down the Ducks lineup, yet they just don't put the puck in the net. The Stars have been a much more productive unit up front. The return of Teemu Selanne will help matters, but the Stars are just deeper. Edge: Stars

Defensemen-Have I mentioned how much the Stars really need Sergei Zubov back? Well, they do. The Ducks have the best group of defensemen in the NHL with Niedermeyer, Chris Pronger (43 points in 72 games), and Matthieu Schneider (39 points in 65 games) while the rest of their group is solid defensively. The Stars are a good defensive group, but without Zubov, they'll have to ask Phillipe Boucher (14 points in 38 games) to be a number one defenseman, something I don't think he's accustomed to. Edge: Ducks

Goaltending-Jean-Sebastien Giguere has proven himself to be one of the best big game goalies of this decade with a Conn Smythe trophy and Stanley Cup on his resume. Marty Turco...umm...has not. This is likely a make or break season for Turco in Dallas, who has been the subject of trade rumors numerous times. He has to step his game up for Dallas to beat the Ducks. Edge: Ducks

Coaching-Dave Tippett has done a fantastic job keeping the Stars performing while everything was crumbling around that organization in October. Randy Carlyle did well to keep the Ducks in the chase after a rough start and a mysterious lack of scoring and some injuries to Jean-Sebastien Giguere. Edge: Ducks

The Pick-This will likely be the best series in the first round. I think it goes the difference and Jean-Sebastien Giguere is the difference. Ducks in 7.


Eastern Conference
1. Montreal vs. 8. Boston

How they got here-The Montreal Canadiens flew under the radar in the Eastern Conference when Ottawa started 13-1 while Alexander Ovechkin was scoring goals like he was getting paid to (oh wait he is). Fact is this though, the Canadiens played absolutely fantastic hockey for the last few months and won the top seed in the Eastern Conference. They scored the second most goals in the league in goals scored as coach Guy Carbonneau somehow convinced Alexei Kovalev (team leading 84 points) to play inspired hockey. They are going to be riding rookie goaltender Carey Price (24-10-3, 2.56 GAA, .920 save%, 3 SO) and hope he can take them to the promised land.

The Boston Bruins have really had a solid season getting back to the playoffs as the 8th seed. Marc Savard (63 assists, 78 points) had a stellar campaign and appeared in the All-Star game. Though he is now on the mend recovering from a back injury. Tim Thomas (28-19-6, 2.44 GAA, .921 save%, 3 SO) also turned in an All-Star campaign as the Bruins led by coach Claude Julien did just enough to get into the Stanley Cup playoffs.

Tale of the Tape---------Montreal--------Boston
Goals Scored---------------257 (2nd)----------206 (24th)
Goals Allowed--------------216 (t-12th)-------215 (11th)
Penalties in Minutes--------1090 (15th)-------1069 (11th)
Power Play-----------------24.2% (1st)--------17.6% (16th)
Penalty Kill-----------------82.5% (15th)------78.6% (28th)
Season Series: Montreal 8-0

Breakdown-Montreal dominated Boston this season, winning all eight contests and winning several in blowout fashion. The Bruins struggled for offense all season and the task of scoring will be infinitely harder if Marc Savard can't effectively pivot the top line coming back from his back injury. If Savard is out, Marco Sturm (27 goals, 56 points) will have to lead the offense. Something he's not comfortable doing as he's more of a complementary player. The Canadiens really have the advantages everywhere you look in this matchup. Boston has to stay out of the penalty box to have a chance. Montreal sported the best power play in the league as better than a third of their goals (90 of 257) came on the power play while Boston's penalty kill was 3rd worst.

Forwards-The Canadiens were one of the most balanced offenses in the National Hockey League this season. Seven different players (five forwards) notched 50 points or more. A stark contrast to Boston's three. Kovalev will be the player Boston will look to quiet, but he has a lot of help in Tomas Plekanec (69 points), Saku Koivu (56), Andrei Kostitsyn (53), and Christopher Higgins. They've also got players like Michael Ryder and Bryan Smolinski who have shown scoring ability in the past. To say the least, Boston has their hands full. Edge: Canadiens

Defensemen-Montreal has two defensemen in Michael Streit and Andrei Markov who combined for 120 points, really adding another element in the Canadien's attack. You won't find many great +/- seasons out of this group simply because they don't score very many even strength goals. A glance at the lineup shows a blue line core that excels at moving the puck and jumping into the play. The Bruins' Zdeno Chara (51 points, +14) is probably the most well rounded blueliner on the team, he is going to be tested by a deep group of forwards while being asked to chip in for his club's anemic offense. Edge: Canadiens

Goaltending-This is a first for both Carey Price and Tim Thomas being in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The Bruins live and die by the performance of the young netminder Thomas. Price has been good but hasn't had to win games on his own to this point. Any chance for Boston to stay competitive in this series starts and ends with the play of Thomas, he will have to be a wall in his first appearance. At this point, I'll take Thomas. Edge: Bruins

Coaching-Claude Julien and Guy Carbonneau both led their clubs to the playoffs, the former an unexpected trip. Julien really got this team to overachieve and as an 8th seed has very little pressure especially with Savard hurt. Carbonneau was a tough nosed championship player and has the weight of Quebec on his shoulders. Every decision he makes will be disected 10 times over. Edge: Canadiens

The Pick-Tim Thomas will play well enough to keep the Bruins competitive and establish himself as a legitimate number one goaltender. In the end, Montreal has too many weapons. Canadiens in 6

2. Pittsburgh vs. 7. Ottawa

How they got here-Early in the season, the Pittsburgh Penguins couldn't do anything right. particularly at their own end. Marc-Andre Fleury was playing poorly, and that's putting it politely. They also couldn't find anyone to play with Sydney Crosby. They were below .500 at the beginning of December and then something happened that should have destroyed their season. Fleury got injured and a month later Crosby went down as well, both missing significant amounts of time. That should have destroyed their season, but it didn't. The Penguins rallied together and played outstanding hockey the rest of the way. Afterthought goaltender Ty Conklin (18-8-5, 2.51 GAA, .923 save%, 2 SO) played brilliant in place of Fleury and Evgeni Malkin (47 goals, 106 points) put together an MVP caliber performance with their leader out. The result, the #2 seed in the Eastern Conference.


The opposite of the resilient Penguins is their opponent, the Ottawa Senators. Fresh off a trip to the Stanley Cup Finals, the Sens came out gangbusters. Winning 13 of their first 14 games (a league record). They could do no wrong the first few months. Even a disgruntled Ray Emery losing his job in net couldn't derail them. They led the league in goals and had numerous players in the all-star game. A January 12th win over league leading Detroit put the Senators at an East leading 29-10-4, things were never the same after that. Dany Heatley hurt his shoulder in that game and things started going against Ottawa every day. The Sens went 14-21-4 the rest of the way and sit as the 7th seed. Facing a 1st round rematch against the Penguins without their captain Daniel Alfredsson (40 goals, 89 points in 70 games).

Tale of the Tape-----------Pittsburgh-----------Ottawa
Goals Scored------------------240 (8th)--------------258 (1st)
Goals Allowed-----------------212 (10th)-------------242 (24th)
Penalties in Minutes-----------1179 (22nd)-----------1175 (t-19th)
Power Play--------------------20.4% (4th)-----------18.3% (12th)
Penalty Kill--------------------81.0% (23rd)----------81.1% (22nd)
Season Series: Ottawa 3-1

Breakdown-These are two teams going in opposite directions. If you were to ask me in November who I thought looked like the team most likely to win the Stanley Cup, I would have said Ottawa. Even ahead of my home team Detroit Red Wings. They were playing that well. What a difference a few months can make. I'm not terribly surprised this is a 2 vs. 7 matchup, though I am shocked at which team holds which seed. Pittsburgh is playing amazing hockey and look like a favorite to reach the Stanley Cup Finals while the Senators seem like they peaked in January.

Forwards-The Senators led the league in goals scored, so this is an easy pick right? Not so much. While Ottawa still has firepower in the form of Jason Spezza (92 points) and Dany Heatley (41 goals, 82 points in 71 games), the Senators had problems at times finding consistent scoring outside of the top lines. The pressure mounts more now that Alfredsson is likely out for this series. Conversely, the Penguins attack looks stronger than ever with the emergence of Malkin, return of Crosby (72 points in 53 games). Players like Petr Sykora (63 points) and Ryan Malone (51) stepped up their games with Crosby out. They've also got Marian Hossa (10 points in 12 games) who they got from Atlanta at the trade deadline and is one season removed from scoring 43 goals. Edge: Penguins

Defensemen-Pittsburgh's attack gets great production from their defense thanks to the dynamic skills of Sergei Gonchar (65 points) and Ryan Whitney (40 points). The Penguins became a much better defensive team as the year went on, and a big reason was the commitment to defense Gonchar showed as he turned in one of his best all-around performances. Wade Redden (38 points) and Andrej Meszaros (36) are serviceable but hardly dynamic and this team as a whole dropped off significantly in their own end. The ability is there for Ottawa, but this whole team seems shellshocked right now. Edge: Penguins

Goaltending-A year ago, Ray Emery looked calm and poised in leading the Senators to the Stanley Cup Finals. Now, he is a malcontent watching Martin Gerber do his job instead. The Penguins had the makings of a goaltending controversy with how well Conklin played, but a healthy Marc-Andre Fleury (19-10-2, 2.33 GAA, .921 save%, 4 SO) quickly put a stop to that when he returned. Fleury was one of the best goalies in the league when he got back, all that is left is for him to prove himself in the postseason. Edge: Penguins

Coaching- Michel Therrien did a fantastic job keeping the Penguins competitive with all of the injuries they had. To make the playoffs alone would have been remarkable given the number of games they were without key players. To finish with the #2 seed is close to impossible. On the flip side, Bryan Murray was so disenfranchised with John Paddock that he handed him his walking papers and decided to do the job himself. Now he has to save a sinking ship. Easier said than done. Edge: Penguins

The Pick-A year ago, this promised to be the most entertaining first round series in the playoffs and we were disappointed as Ottawa dispatched the Penguins easily. There's a lot less hype coming in this time around and for good reason. Pittsburgh puts the Sens out of their misery. Penguins in 4

3. Washington vs. 6. Philadelphia

How they got here-Every year it seems that the Southeast division provides another reminder of the faults in the NHL's playoff seeding. The Washington Capitals won the worst division in hockey by defeating Florida in their final game to clinch a playoff spot and the 3rd seed in the playoffs. Gaining home-ice advantage against a Flyers team that amassed more points (95) than they did (94). Still, this is a great story. This club was left for dead in late November when Bruce Boudreau was named head coach for the floundering team. In mid-January they were 18-21-5 and took off. Alexander Ovechkin (65 goals, 112 points) turned in the best offensive performance in 12 years while a deadline trade for Christobal Huet (11-2-0, 1.63 GAA, .936 save%, 2 SO with Washington) solidified what had been a glaring weakness in net.


The Philadelphia Flyers had a season full of peaks and valleys. When it was all said and done, they completed their turnaround from worst record in the NHL to secure the 6th seed in the Eastern Conference. Wasn't without it's controversy as they quickly became the league's renegade team of bad boys. Injuring opponents without remorse and drawing numerous suspensions and fines along the way. Offseason prize Daniel Briere (72 points) helped, but it was really the emergence of Mike Richards (75 points) into a franchise forward for years to come (at least that's what they hope since he's signed for the next 15 years). Six different players scored at least 20 goals and eight had at least 40 points (seven and nine if you combine Vaclav Prospal's efforts with Tampa Bay before the trade deadline) while Martin Biron (30-20-9, 2.59 GAA, .918 save%, 5 SO) provided much needed stability in net.

Tale of the Tape-----------Washington--------Philadelphia
Goals Scored------------------238 (8th)-------------245 (6th)
Goals Allowed-----------------227 (t-18th)----------227 (t-18th)
Penalties in Minutes-----------975 (4th)-------------1471 (28th)
Power Play--------------------19.0% (7th)-----------21.8% (2nd)
Penalty Kill--------------------80.5% (25th)---------83.2% (10th)
Season Series: tied 2-2

Breakdown-The Washington Capitals are a feel good story and provide a fantastic showcase of the league's best goal scorer in Alexander Ovechkin. The brass in the NHL offices have to be ecstatic over that. Now that Washington has a reliable goaltender, they appear like a team that can hold their own with the best teams in the conference. Philadelphia's roster seems geared to play playoff hockey. Playing a physical, intimidating brand geared towards pummeling opponents into submission. Ovechkin is going to be asked to carry the load as there isn't a plethora of scoring if he gets shut down.

Forwards-Alexander Ovechkin by himself is worth three good forwards, that's how good a player he is. The young Russian has a fearless edge to his game as he will play any style in order to score. Be it grind it out crash the net physical strength or a superbly skilled finesse game. That said, he needs some help from Rookie of the Year candidate Nicklas Backstrom (69 points), deadline acquisition Sergei Fedorov (13 points in 18 games), and youngster Alexander Semin (26 goals) to take the scoring pressure off of him. The Flyers attack is much more balanced as teams can't focus on just Mike Richards and Daniel Briere. Their forwards have skills that all complement each other well and make them a nightmare to match up against. Even with the likely league MVP, I just can't see any argument as to how Washington is better up front. Edge: Flyers

Defensemen-Whichever team gets better play out of their defense is going to go a long way in determining the winner. Mike Green (56 points) had a breakout season for the Capitals, but aside from him and Tom Poti they really don't have anyone that teams have to fear at the point. Kimmo Timonen (44 points) added an offensive element to the blueline the Flyers haven't had in years while Braydon Coburn (36 points) and Randy Jones (31 points) proved serviceable options offensively. Defensively, they are prone to the same lapses as Washington's group. Deadline acquisition Jaroslav Modry (-11 in 19 games) has been a relative bust for the Flyers, but they'll need him to step up and lead this group in their own end. This is a toss-up, so I'm going with my gut. Edge: Flyers


Goaltending-Christobal Huet really solidified the Capitals in net with a stellar 13 games, driving them into the playoffs. Martin Biron took the job from Antero Niittymaki and provided good stability in goal. He has never played in the playoffs but has been a solid player everywhere he's gone. He's never thought of as a long term solution in net, but he's a good player. That said, you have to like how well Huet is playing for the Capitals. Edge: Capitals


Coaching-Two fantastic efforts by Bruce Boudreau of the Capitals and John Stevens of the Flyers. Taking two non-playoff teams who weren't figured to do much this season into the postseason. The players seem to respond well to their bosses and it's another category that's too close to call. Though I think Steven's style is more suited for playoff success in the East, or maybe it's just his roster. Edge: Flyers

The Pick-Alexander Ovechkin will show everyone watching (all three of them) just how good a player he is, but it won't be enough. The Flyers just have too many options up front and will prove too physical for the young Capitals. Flyers in 6

4. New Jersey vs. 5. New York

How they got here-Well they say defense wins championships. That's the motto that the New Jersey Devils are hoping comes true. Once again, they finished as one of the league's best defensive teams (5th in goals allowed) while boasting one of the worst offenses (27th in goals scored). Martin Brodeur (44-27-6, 2.17 GAA, .920 save%, 4 SO) added another stellar season to his Hall of Fame credentials while starting an absurd 77 games. The Devils were 7-10-2 in mid-November before they got going. Pressure will once again be on Martin Brodeur to backstop the Devils if they want to make a deep playoff run.

The New York Rangers are in the same boat as the Devils, a great defensive club (4th in goals allowed) who can't put the puck in the net (25th in goals scored). Yet looking at this roster, you wonder why. The Rangers spent good money to bring in Chris Drury and Scott Gomez from Buffalo and New Jersey respectively, yet dropped seven spots in goals scored. Jaromir Jagr (71 points after registering 96 last season) dropped off significantly and the offense really stumbled out of the gate. Goaltender Henrik Lundqvist (37-24-10, 2.23 GAA, .912 save%, 10 SO) had another stellar campaign and he appears to have a great career ahead of him.

Tale of the Tape-----New Jersey------------New York
Goals Scored-----------198 (27th)-----------------205 (25th)
Goals Allowed----------193 (5th)------------------190 (4th)
Penalties in Minutes----974 (3rd)-----------------1154 (18th)
Power Play-------------15.6% (25th)--------------16.5% (22nd)
Penalty Kill-------------82.8% (13th)--------------84.5% (6th)
Season Series: New York 7-1

Breakdown-The Rangers dominated New Jersey this season, but the playoffs are an entirely different beast. This promises to be a low scoring series but somebody has to eventually put the puck in the net you'd think. We could see a lot of overtime games in this series. Zach Parise (32 goals, 65 points) is going to be under the microscope with Scott Gomez in New York now. On paper, there's a lot more offensive talent on New York's side.

Forwards-I don't get why the Rangers can't score goals, Jaromir Jagr still plays his same style of game yet the points aren't coming. Gomez (70 points) provided a nice lift but Chris Drury (58 points) disappointed. The X-Factor is Brendan Shanahan (23 goals, 46 points). He's not the player he once was and is just a power play specialist at this point. That said, he's been through the battles time and again. He could be a difference maker. On the other side, Patrik Elias (55 points) has to continue his hot streak. He has really fallen off the past few years, but closed the season strong. Edge: Rangers

Defensemen-Offensively, there is nothing to like about the blueliners from New Jersey. As a unit though, they are one of the best in the game. The Rangers actually allowed fewer goals and have the capacity for offense out of Michal Roszival (38 points). However, I see the Devils defenders still as a better unit. Edge: Devils

Goaltending-This is a great matchup between Brodeur and Lundqvist. They are both star goaltenders capable of putting their teams on their respective backs. Brodeur has three Stanley Cups on his resume while Henrik Lundqvist is trying to get the Rangers to the promised land. This is a really close call but Brodeur is the sure fire Hall of Famer, benefit of the doubt goes to him. Edge: Devils

Coaching-Tom Renney and Brent Sutter both had to deal with anemic offenses and probably aged 10 years with the amount of close games they played this season. Again, this is a very even matchup. Renny has done a nice job the last couple seasons with the Rangers, getting them to round two last year. Sutter comes from a coaching family and rallied the troops after they were under .500 in November. It's a tough task to survive a season with Lou Lamorello always trigger happy in the box seats, so that's remarkable in and of itself. Edge: Rangers

The Pick-A low scoring series that will see a lot of minutes played. I think we see at least a couple games in overtime as both teams struggle to score just two goals. In the end, Brodeur is the difference. Devils in 7

Should be a great first round, can't wait.

Panic Runs Amok in the West

Been a few weeks since my last update, my work schedule has been hectic and after waking up at 4 AM every day last week, I really didn't have it in me to write. Anyway, I wanted to revisit the last couple weeks in the NBA since my podcast will return to talk hoops this week.

A few weeks ago, I wrote that the Lakers may have made themselves an NBA championship favorite by acquiring Pau Gasol from the Memphis Grizzlies. A quick check on the actual output since he suited up for the Lakers. The Spaniard has averaged 20.5 points, 8.3 rebounds, shooting 64.5% from the floor, and the Lakers are 5-1 in the six games he has played. Early signs indicate great things. If Kobe Bryant can fight through his finger injury and still be productive, the Lakers certainly appear to be on the short list of contenders.

This update isn't about the Lakers though. At least, not directly. This is about the knee jerk reactions the teams in close competition to them have made thus far. The Phoenix Suns owned the best record in the Western Conference and have knocked the Lakers out of the playoffs the last two years, yet they traded away their best perimeter defender and a key cog to their system in Shawn Marion for what's left of Shaquille O'Neal. Banking heavily that he can heal up, get in shape, run, and defend at a championship level again.

Another contender, the Dallas Mavericks, appear to be making another perplexing trade. Acquiring a very long in tooth Jason Kidd from the New Jersey Nets while giving up Devin Harris and some other parts of their depth. Banking that the Kidd who struggles defending quick guards, is a horrible shooter, and is only marginally effective in a half court game like the one Dallas plays can contain burners like Steve Nash, Chris Paul, and Tony Parker while knocking down kickout jumpers created by Dirk Nowitzki and Josh Howard in a slow paced game unlike the type he is accustomed to.

These are huge gambles that smell like panic trades. Any good executive in sports will tell you if you are making moves to counter another team, you have already lost. The Suns and Mavericks are guilty of doing just that and have now backed themselves into a corner. The Mavericks were the best team in the NBA last season and two wins (and some clean refs) away from winning a championship the year before. It seems that the powers that be there are getting to caught up in what others think about them and their competition than what is in their best interest while getting worse in the process.

Shaquille O'Neal and Jason Kidd WERE fantastic players capable of carrying teams to the NBA Finals. They are now shadows of those players as age has caught up with them. As far as I'm concerned, the competitors to the upstart Lakers are now practically paving the path for the purple and gold to get back to the finals. When all is said and done, it could be proof positive that cooler heads do indeed prevail in these situations. Too often, we feed the beast that are our franchises. We see a slump and we panic. We see what our rival opponent does and we decide we have to make a trade to get a "superstar" no matter what the cost. When you are dealing with a desperate GM, you are likely going to win the deal more often than not.

By next season at least, Nets fans will be elated that they got a player the caliber of Devin Harris out of an aging Jason Kidd. If Shawn Marion does test the market (which would be foolish because he won't get nearly as much as he would by picking up his option), Miami will be able to shop the free agent market and find a good post complement to Dwyane Wade. All because Dallas and Phoenix worried too much about what the Lakers were doing and too little about what was in their own best interests.

Maybe in the end, I'm wrong and one of those teams ends up making a run and winning an elusive ring thanks to their bold reactions to the Lakers. For now, in the era of second guessing, I will first guess both of these deals.