Visions of Spring

The hot stove trade rumors had been burning since the Red Sox swept the Rockies in the World Series in October, which feels like forever ago already. On Tuesday, amid rumors of Boston or New York on the verge of acquiring Twins ace Johan Santana, it was the Detroit Tigers who swooped in and made the biggest splash of the offseason. Trading six players to the Florida Marlins for third baseman Miguel Cabrera and left-hander Dontrelle Willis. This in addition to previous trades for shortstop Edgar Renteria (a 5 time All-Star) and outfielder Jacque Jones (27 homeruns in 2006, only five last year however)

After reaching the World Series in 2006, a combination of injuries, inconsistent pitching, and generally bad luck led to a sputtering finish of 88-74, 8 games behind AL Central champ Cleveland and outside the playoffs. Enter Cabrera (a 4 time all-star who will only be 25 years old in April) and Willis (a 2 time all-star former 22 game winner who will be 26 on opening day) and you figure the Tigers are now on the short list of World Series contenders and a good bet to return to the playoffs.

In 2007, everything that could have gone wrong for the Tigers did. Especially from a pitching standpoint. Kenny Rogers battled a couple bizarre injuries, Jeremy Bonderman ended up on the shelf, Joel Zumaya missed month with a wrist injury, Fernando Rodney was on and off the disabled list most of the season. While some players who provided good power at the bottom of the order dropped off the face of the earth. A healthy Mike Maroth turned out to be subtraction by addition.

Below is a chart of players who fell off their 2006 performances:

• Kenny Rogers: (2006) 33 starts, 17-8, 3.84 ERA-(2007)11 starts, 3-4, 4.43 ERA
  

• Jeremy Bonderman: (2006) 34 starts, 14-8, 4.08 ERA-(2007) 28 starts, 11-9, 5.01 ERA
  

• Nate Robertson: (2006) 32 starts, 13-13, 3.84 ERA-(2007) 30 starts, 9-13, 4.76 ERA
  

• Fernando Rodney: (2006) 63 games, 7-4, 3.52 ERA-(2007) 48 games, 2-6, 4.26 ERA
  

• Joel Zumaya: (2006) 62 games, 6-3, 1.94 ERA-(2007) 28 games, 2-3, 4.28 ERA
  

• Todd Jones: (2006) 2-6, 37 saves, 3.94 ERA-(2007) 1-4, 38 saves, 4.26 ERA
  

• Brandon Inge: (2006) .253, 27 homers, .776 OPS-(2007) .236, 14 homers, .688 OPS
  

• Craig Monroe: (2006) .255, 28 homers, .783 OPS -(2007) .222, 11 homers, .637 OPS
  

• Marcus Thames: (2006) .256, 26 homers, .882 OPS-(2007) .242, 18 homers, .776 OPS
  

• Ivan Rodriguez: (2006) .300, 13 homers, .769 OPS -(2007) .284 11 homers, .714 OPS
  

That doesn't include a shoulder injury destroying what was a great season for Gary Sheffield (21 homers, .970 OPS 1st half-4 homers, .624 OPS 2nd half), nagging injuries to Carlos Guillen catching up (14 homers, .968 OPS 1st half-7 homers, .747 OPS 2nd half), and a whopping 4 homers in 143 games from opening day first baseman Sean Casey (he managed 2 in 5 World Series games in 2006). The Tigers still finished second in the American League in runs scored, but they went from first to ninth in runs allowed. So how does this trade affect the 2008 Tigers? Let's take a look.

Miguel Cabrera Career: (note: OPS+ is OPS compared league average of 100)

• 2003 (age 20)-87 games, 12 homers, .325 OBP, .793 OPS, 106 OPS+

• 2004 (age 21)-160 games, 33 homers, .366 OBP, .878 OPS, 130 OPS+

• 2005 (age 22)-158 games, 33 homers, .385 OBP, .946 OPS, 151 OPS+

• 2006 (age 23)-158 games, 26 homers, .430 OBP, .998 OPS, 159 OPS+

• 2007 (age 24)-157 games, 34 homers, .401 OBP, .966 OPS, 150 OPS+

Dontrelle Willis Career: (note: ERA+ is ERA compared to league average of 100)

• 2003 (age 21)-27 starts, 160 2/3 innings, 142 SO, 1.28 WHIP, 14-6, 3.30 ERA, 127 ERA+

• 2004 (age 22)-32 starts, 197 innings, 139 SO, 1.38 WHIP, 10-11, 4.02 ERA, 102 ERA+

• 2005 (age 23)-34 starts, 236 1/3 innings, 170 SO, 1.13 WHIP, 22-10, 2.63 ERA, 151 ERA+

• 2006 (age 24)-34 starts, 223 1/3 innings, 160 SO, 1.41 WHIP, 12-12, 3.87 ERA, 112 ERA+

• 2007 (age 25)-35 starts, 205 1/3 innings, 146 SO, 1.60 WHIP, 10-15, 5.17 ERA, 83 ERA+

Cabrera is money in the bank, especially if the Tigers manage to sign him long term to an extension. He is a lock to hit around .320 with good power and on-base numbers and he isn't even in his prime. While in theory the same can be said for Dontrelle Willis, the last couple seasons illustrate a disturbing trend. A trend highlighted by the fact that he has already thrown over 1,000 major league innings and that his WHIPs and ERAs have both spiked over the past two seasons in the inferior National League.

In 2005, Willis set a career high in innings pitched but also walked the fewest batters (55) of any season in his career. In the past two seasons, Willis has issued 170 free passes (83 and 87 respectively) after only walking 174 in his first three (never any more than 61). This isn't necessarily uncommon for young pitchers as they learn to better utilize their stuff for strikeouts, but aside from his dynamite rookie debut when he averaged nearly 8 strikeouts per nine innings, Dontrelle has been pretty consistently around 6.4. A number that is still solid, but with the spike in walks you want to see a similar jump in strikeouts to counteract it.

Willis has an odd delivery that is very deceptive that hitters may have finally caught up to. The high leg kick motion is also difficult to repeat with a consistent arm slot. By all reports, the velocity on his fastball has been down the last couple seasons and one begins to wonder if the Marlins brass worked him too hard given how young he was (D-Train has also thrown 15 complete games in his young career, an average of 3 per season, Tigers ace Justin Verlander by contrast has thrown two total in two seasons). To get to the point, there are several red flags over Willis and he is an instrumental part of this trade. That 1.60 WHIP shows that Willis wasn't unlucky, he was pitching poorly in a pitcher's park in a pitcher's league. If the Tigers want to reap the full rewards of this trade after dealing some talented prospects (including top prospects Andrew Miller and Cameron Maybin), Dontrelle will have to get back to his previous self. I don't think he is the dominant pitcher who won 22 games back in 2005, but if he can be a better than league average pitcher out of the #3 spot in the rotation he would be the stabilizing presence they need with the lineup they've assembled.

Cabrera, by all accounts, is a liability in the field who would probably cost Detroit an extra 20 runs if he plays third base in place of Brandon Inge. His bat however will more than likely mean an extra 70-80 runs scored, so that is a net positive. This would also allow for Inge, a great athlete, to be a super sub (a highly paid one at $6 million a year) as he could backup all the infield positions, catch, and play the outfield. With some power in his bat, that would give the Tigers nice depth and insurance in case of an injury. Though talk is that Inge may be on his way out of Detroit.

As far as the American League Central Division is concerned, the Tigers made a big splash with their trades. At the same time, the White Sox have gotten worse by trading Garland and overpaying Scott Linebrink (and probably soon to overpay Aaron Rowand), the Twins have gotten worse by letting Torii Hunter walk (smart decision though, he's not worth 14 million a year) and trading Matt Garza (possibly ace Johan Santana too), the Indians have stood pat and the rumored trade for Jason Bay appears to be dead, the Royals are improving but still have a long ways to go. It will be a two horse race in the Central, and the moves the Tigers have made to supplement a club that was in the World Series 2 years ago and won 88 games last year seems to have them positioned to overtake the Tribe.

Bear in mind, the last time owner Mike Illitch was this proactive in bringing all-star talent to his team was in 2001 when the Detroit Red Wings acquired future Hall of Famers Dominik Hasek, Luc Robitaille, and Brett Hull to put them over the top to win their last Stanley Cup in 2002. Give GM Dave Dombrowski a lot of credit for his dealings of this offseason. Worst case scenario is the Tigers win 95 games and return to the playoffs. Even in a tough American League, I would put money on the Tigers winning 100 games and the World Series in 2008.